Trump-Zelenskyy Spat Sparks Global Reckoning

 

As they watched Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy evicted from the White House last week after an unprecedented live televised quarrel with President Donald Trump and his Vice-President JD Vance, some of America's closest allies began to swiftly reappraise decades of foreign and defence policy.

It was a process that, if anything, accelerated this week as the United States suspended military aid and then intelligence support to Kyiv, reportedly turning US transport planes around in flight and reducing Ukraine's early warning of Russian drone and missile strikes.

Speaking late on Wednesday, French President Emmanuel Macron said the world had become more "brutal" and peace in Europe no longer guaranteed, announcing talks to use France's independent nuclear deterrent to better protect the continent.

In mainland Europe, leaders appear to view the schism with Washington as long-running if not permanent. But just how much more painful it might get is hard to say.

Britain and France are still talking up the prospect of a European force to stabilise and protect Ukraine if and when a peace deal is signed. The London summit appeared successful in restoring a battered Zelenskyy's spirits and teasing out a written apology to Trump from the Ukrainian leader.

Overall, most US allies now expect a long-term trend towards greater US isolationism.

The greatest driver of that has arguably been Vance, and that appears to have often been deliberate. His speech to the Munich Security Conference last month had raised some hackles, as did his needling of Zelenskyy at the White House and criticism of the UK during Prime Minister Keir Starmer's visit that same week.

Most provocative of all, however, was his dismissal of talk of European peacekeeping, in which he described contributors to the suggested force as some "random country that has not fought a war for 30 or 40 years".

Vance denied that he was referring to Britain or France — which have both fought extensively in counterinsurgency and counterterrorism operations, including with and for US-led coalitions. But the damage from his comment appeared lasting.

As vice-president, Vance has a strong chance of being the Republican candidate at the next US presidential election in 2028, as Trump cannot seek a third term under the US Constitution.

With the Democrats still in disarray, Vance might well emerge the victor. Should he serve two terms in office, that could see him dominating US foreign policy for well over a decade— he has made more of a splash in the last few weeks than most vice-presidents have ever managed.

At the swearing-in of Trump's pick as Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, Vance made it clear he would be particularly reluctant to deploy US troops long-term to protect allies in future.

More broadly, under Trump the US looks set to pull funding from some long-term areas of defence, including army troop formations that would fight in Europe in favour of ships for the Pacific, unmanned systems, a renewed focus on US border security and a missile defence shield now dubbed "Golden Dome" that would protect against foreign ballistic missiles.

In the longer run, what is happening in Asia may be both more dangerous and important.

"If war is what the US wants, be it a tariff war, a trade war or any other type of war, we are ready to fight until the end," said China's Foreign Ministry in a statement.

It described the US blaming China for the fentanyl drug crisis as a "flimsy excuse" and warned of "legitimate and necessary" countermeasures. US law enforcement say most fentanyl is made in Mexico but from Chinese ingredients.

Taiwan, increasingly threatened by a Chinese military that US intelligence says has been ordered by President Xi Jinping to be ready to invade by 2027, seems particularly on the firing line.

At his confirmation hearing on Capitol Hill earlier this week, incoming US Undersecretary of Defence for Policy Elbridge Colby warned of a "dramatic deterioration of the military balance" with China.

In the past, Colby — who has for years advocated pulling US resources from Europe to confront a rising China — called for Taiwan to be given security guarantees.

He said he had now shifted that approach because of the worsening strategic situation, implying that if Taiwan could not defend itself, the island might have to be abandoned. - nst